Wednesday, December 3, 2008

I finally got this site back

For the last 2 months I was unable to log in and kept getting emals from blogger saying "your password has been reset"...but it never worked. Anyways, we're back online again and what a fun time it's been. The market hasnt changed much...it's still illogical and illiquid. Technicals are starting to work a little better and hopefully more participants will come back into the market giving us some order in this craziness.

Friday, October 24, 2008

The hits just keep on coming

Japan and Europe sold off hard overnight creative havic in the states this morning. Futures are maxed out to the downside with circuit breakers being tripped. The FX market has seen HUGE, unprecedented moves...Eurodollar down 5 figs, Cable down almost 10 figs. Nerves of steel are required for this ride as the moves are violent, erratic and unforgiving. The sidelines are filling up and liquidity is thin as onlookers try to make heads or tails of this market.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

One must be brave in this new world

The dollar continues to be the save haven currency and equities cant seem to find a bottom. The markets still seem to be moving without rhyme or reason most of the time. Volatility is one thing but these moves are ridiculous. Just when you thought the hedge fund liquidations are done, the mutual fund liquidations start up (in theory). Others claim that this is simply a buyers strike thereby limiting the relief rallies. Either way the currency market is being dragged by the scruff and exposed to every whim of the equities market.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Will the global printing press work?

What a week last week...just when you thought it couldnt get any worse...it does. The dollar is still in vogue yet we will probably see a correction in it's strength any day now. With the UK and the Eurozone now attempting their own plans of shoring up their banking system the Pound and Euro should finally see some short-term support. Look for the pound to have a mild recovery as it has been punished the most. The Euro will most likely stabilize for now but we will see how long that lasts as I dont believe they will continue to cooperate with each other in the long run. If the equities and credit markets stabilize you should see the yen give back a good chunk of their gains as of late. If this is the "bottom" for this massive sell off in equities, it could be a launching pad for carry trades as risk/rewards never looked better. You'll know that the dollar correction is over when the focus turns from how bad Europe is to how large the US deficit will be due to all this spending..but that could be a year from now.

Monday, October 6, 2008

Global Sell-Off. Euroland Crashing!

I've been saying for the past year that Europe and the ECB was going to pay a heavy price for being a currency without a country but no one listened. No the unraveling begins and the US dollar with all it's problems is looking like the best option in a world going down the tubes.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Market Waiting and Falling

We'll see if there will be any time of government plan, whether it's done congressionally or administratively. This meltdown has exposed the European issues that have been hidden and denied for the past year (in my opinion). On the surface this would appear to be a dollar negative however I look for consolidation as the market waits for the last shoe to drop and market direction. Range trades should be good waiting for false breakouts seems to be the play.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Ranges trading persists

With all the potential event risks out there I look for the ranges to hold with a few false breakouts likely to knock out weak stops.