PowerplayFX - Day Pip'n

I finally got this site back

2008-12-03T21:50:00.003-06:00

For the last 2 months I was unable to log in and kept getting emals from blogger saying "your password has been reset"...but it never worked. Anyways, we're back online again and what a fun time it's been. The market hasnt changed much...it's still illogical and illiquid. Technicals are starting to work a little better and hopefully more participants will come back into the market giving us some order in this craziness.

The hits just keep on coming

2008-10-24T07:23:00.002-05:00

Japan and Europe sold off hard overnight creative havic in the states this morning. Futures are maxed out to the downside with circuit breakers being tripped. The FX market has seen HUGE, unprecedented moves...Eurodollar down 5 figs, Cable down almost 10 figs. Nerves of steel are required for this ride as the moves are violent, erratic and unforgiving. The sidelines are filling up and liquidity is thin as onlookers try to make heads or tails of this market.

One must be brave in this new world

2008-10-22T15:43:00.002-05:00

The dollar continues to be the save haven currency and equities cant seem to find a bottom. The markets still seem to be moving without rhyme or reason most of the time. Volatility is one thing but these moves are ridiculous. Just when you thought the hedge fund liquidations are done, the mutual fund liquidations start up (in theory). Others claim that this is simply a buyers strike thereby limiting the relief rallies. Either way the currency market is being dragged by the scruff and exposed to every whim of the equities market.

Will the global printing press work?

2008-10-13T07:49:00.004-05:00

What a week last week...just when you thought it couldnt get any worse...it does. The dollar is still in vogue yet we will probably see a correction in it's strength any day now. With the UK and the Eurozone now attempting their own plans of shoring up their banking system the Pound and Euro should finally see some short-term support. Look for the pound to have a mild recovery as it has been punished the most. The Euro will most likely stabilize for now but we will see how long that lasts as I dont believe they will continue to cooperate with each other in the long run. If the equities and credit markets stabilize you should see the yen give back a good chunk of their gains as of late. If this is the "bottom" for this massive sell off in equities, it could be a launching pad for carry trades as risk/rewards never looked better. You'll know that the dollar correction is over when the focus turns from how bad Europe is to how large the US deficit will be due to all this spending..but that could be a year from now.

Global Sell-Off. Euroland Crashing!

2008-10-06T08:20:00.002-05:00

I've been saying for the past year that Europe and the ECB was going to pay a heavy price for being a currency without a country but no one listened. No the unraveling begins and the US dollar with all it's problems is looking like the best option in a world going down the tubes.

Market Waiting and Falling

2008-09-30T08:25:00.003-05:00

We'll see if there will be any time of government plan, whether it's done congressionally or administratively. This meltdown has exposed the European issues that have been hidden and denied for the past year (in my opinion). On the surface this would appear to be a dollar negative however I look for consolidation as the market waits for the last shoe to drop and market direction. Range trades should be good waiting for false breakouts seems to be the play.

Ranges trading persists

2008-09-26T08:25:00.001-05:00

With all the potential event risks out there I look for the ranges to hold with a few false breakouts likely to knock out weak stops.

The hits just keep on coming!

2008-09-26T08:14:00.004-05:00

The bailout plan is a no-go for now and surprisingly the buck is holding steady. My take is that the Dems were putting out the message "a deal is done" yesterday knowing full well the house Republicans were not buying...this allows the Dems to play politics and point fingers at the Republicans and McCain. These guys are so fucking predictable...and the media is buying it hook, line and sinker. It's funny..the media believes the republicans are playing poilitics..but they dont even think about the idea that it could be the Dems that are the one's playing the game. One thing is for certain..the markets arent going to play the game and I think we could see a slow bleed till the end of October. Players continue to look for some major capitulation to happen to signal it's over...but I think it's all a bunch of bear traps because the underlying fundamentals still stink.

Ranges Persist

2008-09-24T10:20:00.002-05:00

Ranges are holding but probably due to shock over the past 2-3 weeks of events. I dont believe anyone knows what to expect next and the situation is very fluid. Technicals have started to be effective again but one false(perceived) move by congress or the fed/tsy could throw it out of wack again.

Another Historical Trading Day

2008-09-22T17:23:00.002-05:00

Oil was up to 130, gold is approaching 1000, commodities are up across the board as the dollar plummets. Euro is looking to hit the 50% Fin at 1.49ish and there was probably a great deal of short covering (not unlike crude oil today). Stops were repeatedly blown thru (including my own) and oversold indicators are no longer valid in this type of market. Keep stops in place on each trade and reduce exposure to survive. Up is down and down is out. Trend is your friend..for now.

Commodities Correction Over?

2008-09-22T08:33:00.004-05:00

Denni Gartman calls for the commodities bull market to resume due to inflation and the effects of a re-weakening dollar due to the bailout plan. I'm not sure about this one, however momentum is shifting that way quickly and of late momentum is the name of the game in this mkt. We'll see.

After the love is gone

2008-09-22T07:11:00.004-05:00

Reminds me of the Earth Wind and Fire song..."what used to be right is wrong". The dollar has become out of favor again due to the thought that the massive treasury plan will increase the deficit. Not to sound like a dollar bull, but I guess people arent listening to people like Bill Gross who says over time the government will most likely make money on this plan. I dont believe that these illiquid assets are going to be worthless and as time goes by they will appreciate and we will start seeing right ups by the government. Europe however has yet to address the issue...as usual the fx market is behind the curve. Remember the sentiment on decoupling and easing monetary policy...and look how quickly they changed towards those theories.

Little time to blog...too much data

2008-09-17T15:13:00.003-05:00

What a week..Lehman, Merril, AIG, Fed..it's enough to make one dizzy. Limit exposure and have an exit for each position is the theme in these whippy markets.

Ugly Conditions!

2008-09-16T08:21:00.002-05:00

The market looks to be in a freefall and other than risk aversion trades being taken (or risky trades being unwound) the fx market looks to be in a range waiting to see "what's next". With the Fed meeting today and all the potential event risks the market is thin and probably wont run too far in any direction. Market looking for at least a 25 bp rate cut and so far hasnt negatively effected the dollar. Keep your powder dry for extreme price actions.

Crazy Weekend/Week

2008-09-15T13:34:00.001-05:00

What a week we have ahead of us. I've been to glued to my screens to blog my ideas as trades have been coming fast and volatility is huge.

Oil up and Dollar Down

2008-09-12T09:34:00.001-05:00

Euro and Cable up across the board against the dollar..waiting for European close and fade point for 30-40 pip move back down.

The bounce finally happened!

2008-09-12T06:33:00.002-05:00

Dollar giving back gains as Euro and Pound get a much needed relief rally. Could be a turning point but way to early to call. As usual just when you think it's about to take another leg down we get a sharp reversal...senn it before. Today will probably see consolidation of these gains..unless...we get a plan for Lehman. Being that rumours will be flying around..I dont think things will move much one way or another as Sunday looks like the day we will know what the Fed and Treasury will do to broker a deal. Also, oil might break below 100...although with Huricane Ike looking stronger I believe we will see a dip below and start to rally along with the move yesterday in the Euro..since they have been closely correlated as of late.

Oil nearing 100 and could be Sub by close

2008-09-11T09:44:00.002-05:00

As the dollar continues to strengthen oil continues to sink which is making the prediction of 80 oil look realistic. How does that Goldman call for $170 oil look now? Eurodollar bounced nicely after extending lows to 1.3881 (no follow thru at all) and we went long at 1.3890 and rode it to 1.3919. This is a quick pip market and we'll play it like that.

Barriers Break at 4, 1.3890 Low

2008-09-11T07:51:00.002-05:00

The liquidation continues..still looking for bounces. I like buying after a previous low has been taken out. In this environment of being oversold, the follow thru has been minimal and pullbacks have been good enough to take advantage of. Eventually the bad US news will come to roost and the dollar will give back some of it's recent gains (things dont go straight up). Also, the EUR/JPY is unwinding as expected and currently trades at 148.00 helping to pin down the Eurodollar. Carry trades are being unwound larger than last August which bounced back quickly..could happen again.

Barriers are being protected

2008-09-10T13:56:00.003-05:00

Barriers at 1.40 have been tested 3 times now within the last 3 hours and have held well. Topside stops will most probably be targeted next with nearest resistance at 1.4075 and hourly resistance at 1.4155. Again the question is which one is the leader..oil or dollar. My guess now is dollar as the oil data (hurricane and inventories) should've been given it a boost and didnt. A fourth test cant be ruled out after 4pm..we'll see.

And we bounce...

2008-09-10T12:09:00.002-05:00

As expected we bounced from 1.4012 and 1.7538. Being that it is wednesday and rollover's are paid at 3x for retailers those short probably lightened up and could be a good selling opportunity at 4pm to go short again.

It's all about oil

2008-09-10T10:47:00.003-05:00

Or is it all about the dollar. One of them is leading the currency market around by the nose (ala three stooges). Are our friend Denni Gartman makes the argument that corporates are not hedged for this move and if the dollar continues to gain it could unleash a stronger dollar push where the Eurodollar target of 1.36 becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. We could look at the last 2 months as a consolidation period towards the next leg down. Both camps (Euro bulls and Dollar bulls) will have much to say about this over the next few days as we are teetering on the 1.40 handle.

Think again...1.4045 just gave way

2008-09-10T09:57:00.001-05:00

Is this another false breakout or is this the move??

Ranges tighten midmorning

2008-09-10T09:45:00.004-05:00

It appears that interest is dwindling and a move forward could be coming soon, but not soon enough for many. Directionless trading has me playing more of a guessing game as data, correlations, momentum and techs offer little. I guess I will continue to play the extremes of the range (I told you it was a guessing game).

We're still in these ranges

2008-09-10T08:11:00.002-05:00

Testing the bottom of the ranges overnight, we are bouncing now. Oil is stable and the Dow looks to open up.

1.41 and 1.7570 Hold and Bounces

2008-09-09T15:49:00.002-05:00

Drops always occur much fast than the rises and this morningsn rise in Eurodollar and Cable did just that. Asia should produce some good tradable ranges as the false breakouts have the market guessing. Oil is down to 102 and sub 100 is around the corner, commodities continue to fall along with equities as the Dow was down 280. Interesting times right now.

False Breakouts

2008-09-09T14:27:00.004-05:00

1.42 gave way to 1.4227 and then retraced to 1.4127 (so far)..Cable hit 1.7708 and then dropped down to 1.7600. Choppy trading and oil down to 102.10 has everyone wondering which direction we're going. With no follow-thru to moves on the upside I still believe we're stuck in this range.

Ranges Persist

2008-09-09T08:14:00.002-05:00

As I thought the ranges between 1.4040 -1.42 have held overnight..same with Cable's range. This is probably working off oversold conditions and waiting for direction. Both pairs are due a retracement towards Fibo's but so far they've been non existent. I alwats say things do go straight up or straight down, so I guess when(if) US data starts turning gloomy again the retracements will begin. Trade the ranges!

Nice Bouncing Now

2008-09-08T13:56:00.000-05:00

Euro and Pound Break To New Lows

2008-09-08T13:03:00.003-05:00

Although the breaks have been limited the sentiment is still very dollar positive and Europe negative (both Euro and Pound). Eurodollar traded down to 1.4050 and cable hit 1.7470. Look for bounces as oversold conditions and 24hr volatilty may be taking their toll. Fannie and Freddie news created massive volatility and I think you still need to buy new dips and take profit early and often.

Dow & Dollar Soars

2008-09-08T09:02:00.003-05:00

Dow up 200+, Eurodollar at 1.42 from overnight high of 1.4430. Pound is back down to 1.76 from the overnight high of 1.79's. You would think Fannie and Freddie would be bad for the buck but the market sees it as stability. It's interesting to see the change in thinking from 3 months ago...now government intervention be it the Fed or Treasury seems to looked at as good whereas it used to be seen as dollar devaluing. We'll see if range bottoms hold as short term pops where quickly beaten down.

Fannie, Freddie and Stops Rip thru Market

2008-09-08T06:37:00.002-05:00

What a weekend, Fannie & Freddie get bailed out by Uncle Sugar and the currency market rips thru top side stops on the way to nowhere after Eurozone confidence weakens and the Euro and Pound decide to selloff after gapping up 300-400 pips Sunday. My guess is that this move has now increased our trading range and we will see this range until the end of the quarter. Like Friday sell the mega rips (did last night) and buy the mega dips. Expires at 9am could make for some interesting trades.

Ranges hold thru Euro close

2008-09-05T12:18:00.001-05:00

A slight sell off and bounce occured at Euro close and alas the ranges held. As I mentioned earlier, it's a good time to play this small range as consolidation sets in for the weekend. Enjoy!

No Huge Rips Yet

2008-09-05T09:03:00.002-05:00

The market looks a little gun shy after yesterday (understandably). It looks like we will probably slip into a range for the remainder of the day. Hopefully that will bring good opportunities to buy and sell from both sides when moves look extreme.

1.4350 and 1.44 Next Target

2008-09-05T07:49:00.004-05:00

I love it when I'm right. Bounced from 1.4215 and quickly took out the order at 1.4300. Those are quite easy to see and call. Sell the mega rips and Euroclose. Stops are a necessity!

Always have an exit strategy for every position as these things can move quickly.

Topside stops to be targeted next

2008-09-05T07:39:00.001-05:00

Downside but not a surprise

2008-09-05T07:33:00.002-05:00

The Eurodollar quickly traded up to 1.43 and it looks like it ran into remnant orders for yesterday's flush. Buy the dips.

NFP's look priced into the market

2008-09-05T06:37:00.002-05:00

It'll be interesting to see if a better than expected NFP number will move the eurodollar and pound lower. My guess is that it's already priced in which leads me to believe that a downside number will be the surprise and after the overnight selloff a sizeable bounce could occur. Sell the rallies still prevail.

Liquidation Mode

2008-09-04T16:59:00.003-05:00

Some major players decided to wage a sneak attack. Looks to be the massive deleveraging and is reeking havoc on currencies and markets everywhere...that's why nothing makes sense right now. Oversold indicators are starting to become meaningless in this liquidative move...stops are recommended at these breakneck speeds!

What a difference a month can make

2008-09-04T16:47:00.002-05:00

Just 30 days ago the EUR/JPY was trading at 169 and scratching at 170, today it hit 151's. When these things drop, they drop like a friggen rock. I'd like to thank Nicole Elliot for correctly calling this drop for the last 4 months. Calls are easy to make, it's the timing that's difficult.

Holy Sh??

2008-09-04T16:20:00.004-05:00

Standback as Euro and Cable plunge into the depths...this is crazy man. Euro collapsed 90 pips in 5 minutes, the eur/jpy went 180 pips in 15 minutes. It wouldnt surpise me if you started to see it bounce but it's to scarey of a ride today. Jane, get me off this crazy thing.

Eurodollar breaks 1.4325 with limited follow thru

2008-09-04T14:14:00.002-05:00

The dollar move is reaching exhaustion on this new leg down as the 1.4325 was broken and follow thru was next to nothing printing a low of 1.4319. I'm sure 1.4300 is more sat'd with stops and would guess a limited follow thru of that level would prompt some profit taking on this massive euro dump. US data coming up may also prompt profit taking as most believe that the US data cant continue to impress.

Yen crosses plunge alongside Dow

2008-09-04T13:13:00.002-05:00

USD/JPY is at 107 and trying to break lower, EUR/JPY is now at 153.60 as the Dow plunges 300+. Looks like a risk aversion move against everything as dollar shorts are unwound. Eurodollar has stabilized at 1.4350 but looks very heavy still and further falls cant be ruled out, Pound bounced nicely from 1.7627 to 1.7730.

Everything is Falling Except the Buck

2008-09-04T10:16:00.004-05:00

Eurodollar has hit 1/4334 and BB are screaming and stops are being wiped clean.. a bounce could be immenent as this move is truely overdone but obviously not a false breakout.

Dow Down, Oil Down, Dollar Up?

2008-09-04T09:44:00.003-05:00

We still have some strange convergences so be aware of false breakouts..Eurodollar has hit a low of 1.4380 and option defenses at 1.4360 look to be targeted. EUR/JPY is continuing it's sharp fall and in turn dragging down the Eurodollar and is now at 155.31. Keep your powder dry as opportunities are coming into play for the Euro close.

EUR/JPY helping drag down Eurodollar

2008-09-04T09:26:00.002-05:00

My assumption was correct on the in ability to sustain any rally by the Eurodollar and cable, now EUR/JPY has joined the party down to sub 155 levels. It's hard to imagine that 2 months ago we were at 1.59 /169. and the upside seemed unlimited. As always, the crosses correct viciously so buyer/seller beware. I look for some stability at 1.4400 and 1.77 before we take another small leg down. Again, as these pairs are way oversold they will probably bounce back for 40 pips upon hitting these levels.

JC sings the same old tune!

2008-09-04T08:38:00.003-05:00

Trichet keeps his single mandate song going but the market half heartedly believes him. Three months ago the Euro would have soared due to his stance on price stability and 2nd round effects, today it can barely muster a rally after weeks of being oversold. I still dont think we should discount a move up in the Eurodollar or Cable at this point but their inability to hold gains makes me think the market will continue to consolidate at these levels. Play the ranges and buy dips, sell rips!

ECB & BOE Leave Rates Unchanged...Duhhh.

2008-09-04T07:02:00.002-05:00

To no one's surpise the European central banks left rates unchanged and most feel it's only a matter of time until they both lower. We'll wait till the ADP release and ECB press conference to see if this bounce has any legs. Given the fact that both the pound and euro are extremely oversold this could be the upside move to relieve downside pressure and possibly keep up in a range until the end of the quarter.

Dollar loosing steam?

2008-09-03T12:33:00.003-05:00

The dollar seems to be loosing steam today but has stabilize prior to the Beige Book release. Both the Euro and Pound look to be bouncing back from extreme levels of being oversold. The pound might be able to break to a new low on stop hunting but I dont think it will last long as the market is looking to take some more profits off the table prior to the rate anouncement. Cable is trading at range low of 1.7718 with the daily low of 1.7660 backing it up, resistance was tested twice at 1.7820 and failed on both occasions, possibly from the Euro close.

Buy the Dips, Sell the Rips

2008-09-03T09:47:00.003-05:00

Great day for in-and-out trading with the Pound zig-zaging upward. As long as each position taken has an exit strategy (always) the winners far out number the loosers.

Good bouncing being done in Euro and Pound

2008-09-02T11:00:00.002-05:00

Off the lows of the early morning the Euro and Pound are easing up to the levels of resistance and will probably settle into a range in between to correct from oversold. Stops up top might be popped so look for limited follow thru after stops get ran and short from there. This dollar rally needs a break but it is too strong to really go against. The trend is your friend.

ISM Disappoints but will the dollar suffer?

2008-09-02T09:02:00.002-05:00

ISM data was a smidge below expectations shoing that we are still muddling thru this mess. The dollar might get a slight breather and could get to better levels to short the euro and pound.

As oil goes so goes the world

2008-09-02T07:50:00.002-05:00

The dollar short/long oil and commodities trade is continuing to be unwound at record pace. The Euro and Pound are getting crushed just one year after they were anointed as the next reserve currency(s) and oil is at 106 looking for support. I will be watching to take advantage of some oversold rallies and we'll see if the US data continues to impress. If so 1.40 will be here before you know it. Look for a Euro close bounce is EUR/USD continues to slide, also GBP should bounce as it went thru the bottom BB at 1.7811 and the most oversold dropping 7 big figs over the past 10 days.

Sell all Euro Rallies

2008-08-29T12:32:00.003-05:00

The market is about to start another leg down, I'm not gonna fight this one. Also, if the hurricane(s) fail to do any damage (let's hope it doesnt) oil could break below 110 which would setup eurodollar 1.40 and eur/jpy sub 158.00 which could be the edge of a cliff.

It's funny, people were so worried about the disorderly drop in the dollar, but I guess they couldnt give a dang about the disorderly drop in the euro.

The Rubberband Theory

2008-08-28T14:38:00.003-05:00

Cable and the Euro to a lesser extent are oversold and due to correct, prices don't do straight up or down. The rebound, temporary as it may be, is due and could be immanent. But as always there are many false moves that barely break support levels only to reverse themselves later on. I would assume that once cable starts correcting the Euro might as well and that could very well be next month after putting in slightly lower lows if that.

If you're confused and ya know it clap your hands

2008-08-28T11:29:00.004-05:00

Cable has stabilized at 1.8265 and 1.4680 has held so far, next level of support for the Eurodollar is 1.4660. The Dow is up 190 and oil is at 115. I dont think I'm alone in the confusion in this market. My only thought is low volume and end of month is upon us..meaning stay away.

Not oil or dollar strenght...Cable is driving this

2008-08-28T10:51:00.002-05:00

Dont know why I didnt see this earlier, but cable weakness has been driving the dollar strength which is also driving oil down to 114 in the wake of potentially damaging huricanes heading towards the gulf. 1.4690 has been broken and stops are tripping everywhere. This is getting seriously interesting.

No Direction Choppiness Continues

2008-08-28T10:25:00.003-05:00

False breakouts are the trend of the day. Just when you think you're out, they drag you back in. We'll see how low we can go now since 1.4730 has been broken and now we've pulled back of hitting the Winnepeg line. The market over the last week has been one big game of chicken.

So much for my forecast

2008-08-28T09:35:00.003-05:00

We're having a test of 1.4730 as we speak...will it hold? Next target on the downside is 1.4665. Apparently cable's inablility to hold 1.8330 is a catalyst in dollar buying.

Which will give first?

2008-08-28T09:17:00.002-05:00

Normally as oil goes north equities go south, however today they are both heading north (Dow +100, oil +118). This in turn has helped the Euro edge higher which began last night despite better than expected us GDP numbers. The yen got a goose from the announcement of a Japanese stimulus program yet the crosses are still within the ranges of the past 48 hours. I plan on sell the rallies on Euro for quick pips as the market looks to target the stops up top. 1,4850 looks like a good point with a target back to the short term trend line (1.4800 by then) and possibly a break of that taking us back to the latest support at 1.4730.

Range trading persists

2008-08-28T09:04:00.002-05:00

The dollar has been weakening this morning with crude oil up to 119 thanks to storms brewing. GDP numbers were better than expected but was only good for a short term pop. 1.4815 seems to be the top for now and support is at 1.4630'sh.

BOOM goes the Pound!

2008-08-27T11:13:00.002-05:00

The pound quickly imploded creating a dollar binge against the Euro (printing 1.4660). Cable bottomed out at 1.8280 and looks like it is overdone..but changing trends always look overdone. This now appears to be a massive consolidation before another leg down for the Eurodollar as US data continues to surprise while Eurozone data is looking weaker along with weakening inflation numbers in Germany. Play the ranges as lower highs and moderately lower lows persist. Limted breaks in support points to more consolidation before this move can continue.

Eurodollar Selloff Pre-Invertory Report

2008-08-27T09:29:00.003-05:00

1.4680...where is support? 1.4670 and then 1.4630 (overnight low). If that doesn't tell you that oil is an important catalyst I don't know what will.

Gustav and Inventories Could Prove Bullish

2008-08-27T09:05:00.002-05:00

Oil is at it's highs and inventory reports are due in 30 min. Euro bounce is still due and oil could be as well...wait and see.

Euro bounces again

2008-08-27T09:00:00.002-05:00

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY bounce on hawkish ECB comments (nothing new there). But fell from highs of 1.4775 after stronger than expected US durable goods report. Crosses u & e have stayed at high levels and oil is up at 118 helping to support the Euro. EUR/USD is now consolidating at 1.4710-1.4730.

Market Awaiting FOMC Minutes

2008-08-26T12:19:00.003-05:00

After selling off overnight the Euro bounced back only to give most of it back pre-FOMC. I dont think it will bring us much insight as we all know that their hands are tied but they are concerned about inflation. In 30 minutes we'll see how the market reacts to this. My forecast is one big DUD!

Chop Chop..Dong

2008-08-26T10:26:00.004-05:00

This market feels like Grandpa ordering Long Duck Dong around..chop chop. EUR/USD bounced after hitting 1.4570, EUR/JPY bounced at 159.917. Deadcat or weakening trend? It looks to me that the move down is weakening by the fact that there is little follow thru after breaking lower. We'll see. "No more yankie my wankie...Donga need direction!"

EUR/USD breaks below 1.4630

2008-08-26T08:13:00.002-05:00

Support at 1.4630 has now been broken a daily low of 1.4570 is in place. Next stop looks to be 1.4550 and beyond. This move is in need of a bounce, but like most strong trends it's not getting it anytime soon. This could still be a function of light markets and September could produce the bounces (volatility) that have been expected..until then the pressure remains to the downside as dollar shorts continue to be unwound. EUR/JPY is trading heavy as well and 160 support has been taken out too. With fed minutes on tap we will probably see consolidation of this latest stab lower for the Euro.

Yen rising on risk aversion

2008-08-25T14:02:00.002-05:00

Both the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY have fallen with the Dow down 220. Oil is steady at 115 today and trading is very light today..may not be much action in currencies until Asia starts trading. This looks to be the last week of summer vacations for bankers so thin volumes could produce eratic moves (or so claims CNBC).

London Holiday and Consolidation

2008-08-25T08:43:00.002-05:00

The order of the day is more consolidation (choppiness) whilest we decide which direction the EUR/USD is going. The Jackson Hole weekend was rather meaningless (as expected) as the hawks and doves did their bits. Most believe the Fed has no room to raise rates and the futures would agree. No meaningfull data until Tuesday in Euroland (Consumer Confidence, GDP, and Ifo).

Euro upward move consolidates 1.48-1.49

2008-08-22T09:52:00.002-05:00

After reaching 1.49 in Asia EUR/USD has pulled back to 1.4790 and is hovering above 1.48 for the time being. Dollars are being bid with the USY/JPY looking to test recent highs (currently at 110.) Being that it's Friday one never knows and playing the European close fade could be a fools trap as usual.

Wow...what a turn around in oil

2008-08-21T10:25:00.002-05:00

I guess we know who s driving this thing...oil. Up to 121.80 today and is starting to pull back a bit..for those of you playing the home version of this game that's a $5+ move today..havent seen one of those in a while. EUR/USD looks to have peaked at 1.4898..allowing me to play my favorite setup..European close fade. Question is what is a viable target to the downside? The TL from1.4750 would be touched at 1.4840'ish now. Could be 1.4850 before new buyers emerge.

Ok..the bounce is for real...as is Oil at 119

2008-08-21T09:11:00.004-05:00

These markets can be brutal with the choppiness...and yesterday was a prime example. It looked as if the steam was going to run out as oil dipped to 112 dragging down the EUR/USD to 1.4660's only to reverse itself on it's way 1.4870 as of this post. Oil is now close to 120 ands commodities are on the rise too. Is it the dollar or oil?? They are majorly correlated, but which one is driving the train?

Oil Inventories Rise and Oil Plumets

2008-08-20T10:28:00.002-05:00

Dragging down the Euro and 1.4690 breaks...next stop 1.4650/1.4600. We are probably going to be in a range trading consolidation mode for the next few weeks before a real relief rally occurs.

1.4690 Holds..for now

2008-08-20T07:15:00.004-05:00

This bounce could be out of gas after tripping light stops at 1.4805. Since then 1.4750 failed to hold and 1.4690 became new support. Sentiment remains anti-euro, pro-dollar. With little meaningful data this week the rumours will probably run rampant.

Onward and upwards?

2008-08-19T16:45:00.003-05:00

According to the bullish divergent guru's the close above 1.4760 is a buy signal. I still have a hard time buying or selling based on the NY closing price...seems to simple. But the simple fact that Euro has been oversold for the last 2-3 weeks is another reason to try to ride this up so one can short it at a better level.

Afternoon Lull

2008-08-19T14:28:00.004-05:00

After scratching at 1.4790, the EUR/USD settles into consolidation mode with support seen at 1.4750 and supported by the rise in EUR/JPY, oil and the slump in the Dow now down 118. I told you this would be a good time to take profits on the shorts...I did :-) The move and hold above 1.4750 should remove some downside pressure as the market hunts topside stops forcing others to take profit on shorts.

Thar She Blows!

2008-08-19T11:14:00.005-05:00

1.47 teens get popped..next stop 1.48, oil up to 115 is helping support the bounce. Fade point..you pick'em...1.49, 1.50, 154?

Will this bounce get clobbered?

2008-08-19T09:35:00.001-05:00

Eurodollar bounces off of 1.4630 to test 1.4710. I'd be taking some profits (and I am) as I think this one will have better legs the the previous attemps to bounce.

When calls seem far fetched...they probably are

2008-08-19T09:22:00.003-05:00

I wonder if the people that were calling for 1.75 Eurodollar are the same guys now saying it will be 1.35 by year end. I guess if I saw a move as strong as this I'd change my call too. My point is that once the calls start to get too outrageous you can expect the market to be on the opposite side of the trade (Goldman's $200 per bbl oil call for example).

Limited Break Below 1.4635

2008-08-19T07:02:00.003-05:00

When I see a limited break below support and a bounce that tells me this move needs a breather. Although offers are strong above 1.4750 it still remains way oversold.

Oil is down, and so is the Dow

2008-08-18T12:26:00.003-05:00

Wow, what a great Monday for the Dow...goes to show you that a stronger dollar and lower oil prices are not the big fix we all thought it would be. It looks like this slow down will be here for a while.

Consolidation or Short Term Bounce?

2008-08-18T11:52:00.001-05:00

With little data out today it looks like consolidation is the name of the game (EUR/USD)...although with oversold technicals glaring at us a significant bounce could occur. The momentum is definitely with the USD but this move needs a breather in my opinion..and you know what they say about opinions.

2008-08-18T11:20:00.000-05:00

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